New model developed to aid high-risk areas affected by intense flooding

A team of Northwestern researchers has developed a new method that predicts debris flow to help warn people living in high-risk areas of potential flooding.

Water runoff caused by intense rainfall can often devastate communities that are not prepared. With this augmented system, researchers were able to replicate how water moves over different types of terrain and can ultimately help create prevention measures.

Daniel Horton, the study’s senior author, is an assistant professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Weinberg College and leads its Climate Change Research Group. The team’s report was published in the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.

​​“Because of human-caused climate change, the ingredients that lead to debris flows are certainly becoming more common,” Horton said. “Due to intensified precipitation, drought and wildfires, debris flow conditions are particularly prevalent in California.”

​​“People want to know about their immediate and future risk,” said Horton. “Although it’s not yet to operational standards, this modeling framework could one day be instrumental in forecasting where debris flows are likely to occur and deciding who needs to be evacuated.”

Learn more in Northwestern Now’s article, “Model developed to predict landslides along wildfire burn scars.”